The Center Square Exposes Unsustainable Surge in Washington State Spending
Washington is barreling toward a fiscal cliff—and legislative leaders are flooring the gas. That’s the stark reality uncovered in a new investigative report by The Center Square, which reveals an eye-popping 116% increase in state spending over the last decade—a rate that far outpaces both inflation and population growth.
In 2013-15, the state operated on an $80 billion budget. By 2025-27, that figure is projected to soar beyond $173 billion. For perspective, inflation since 2015 has only climbed 35.6%, and the state population has grown by just 13.8%. That means Washington’s spending is increasing at three times the rate of inflation and nearly nine times the rate of population growth.
As Mountain States Policy Center’s Jason Mercier put it bluntly, “Washington is such an outlier on the spending increase. Other states are tracking very closely to inflation. Idaho was below inflation this past year.”
Where is all this money going?
The Center Square’s report identifies five major budget categories responsible for $77.2 billion in increased spending:
- Department of Social and Health Services: +$15.6B (182% increase)
- Long Term Care: +$9.1B (239% increase)
- General Apportionment (K-12 base funding): +$11.2B (98% increase)
- Public Schools overall: +$19.7B (111% increase)
- Health Care Authority: +$21.6B (132% increase)
Those are staggering jumps in just a decade.
What did we get for it?
“At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself, ‘What did we get for that new spending?’” said Rep. Travis Couture (R-Allyn). “We don’t see the results on what we’re spending on.”
Even some of the biggest spending increases—like the state’s massive boost in K-12 education funding—are being called into question. Originally sparked by the McCleary lawsuit, the 2017 school funding overhaul was supposed to fix inequities in school financing. But 7 years later that promise rings hollow. Reading and math scores have declined, not improved. From 2017 to today, 4% more fourth graders scored “Below Basic” in math (which is practically failing so let’s just call it that). And 8% more fourth graders also failed the reading exam. Among eighth graders, both reading and math failure rates rose by 9%. Instead of narrowing gaps, we’re watching more students fall behind on fundamental skills.
The largest tax increase in state history
To keep up with runaway spending, state Democrats passed a whopping $12.5 billion in new taxes—an average of $4,000 per Washington household—during the 2025 legislative session.
These include:
- A B&O tax increase on most businesses
- A massive expansion of the sales tax base
- A new progressive capital gains tax structure
- Liquor, rental car, and luxury vehicle tax hikes
- Higher hunting/fishing licenses and park fees
- A new ticket tax on sporting events and concerts
- A local property tax cap increase (1% to 3%)
And still… A shortfall is coming
Despite record-high revenues and tax increases, The Center Square reports Washington is still projected to run a shortfall by 2028. The state’s current forecast shows one the size of $444 million unless the legislative leadership acts.
Rep. Ed Orcutt (R-Kalama) says there’s a simple fix: stop overspending. “We have time to make spending adjustments to bring the outlook into balance – not to dip into emergency reserves,” he said.
Orcutt and other fiscal conservatives argue the real problem is that budgets are being written to match legislative leaders’ wishlists, not realistic revenue projections. “Budgets need to be written to expected revenues rather than to increase taxes to fund the budget written,” he said.
And now, that shortfall will grow even larger. With the passage of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Washington is now projected to lose billions in federal Medicaid funding. The bill tightens Medicaid eligibility rules, and Washington officials estimate as many as 100,000 people could lose Apple Health coverage. Gov. Bob Ferguson’s Senior Health Policy Advisor Caitlin Safford reacted, “There’s going to be some tough decisions that are going have to be made on the ground around how we’re structuring our health care system.”
What comes next?
The Center Square’s investigation raises important questions about the sustainability and priorities of Washington state government. As spending surges and tax burdens grow heavier, everyday Washingtonians are left wondering if they’re getting anything close to their money’s worth.
Will legislative leaders finally rein in spending? Or will the answer be more tax hikes, more red tape, and more broken promises? Now, with the federal government pulling back billions in Medicaid funding under President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, lawmakers might need to face this issue head-on. Over 100,000 residents will likely lose their coverage. Will the state step in to help? With all their environmental spending, can they? At the end of the day, the question will be: what’s more important, healthcare or unproven environmental policies?
This could be the turning point. For years, Olympia has papered over its reckless spending with new taxes and wishful thinking. But without federal dollars to cushion the blow, the financial reckoning may come sooner than anyone planned, and Washington voters will likely demand that lawmakers readjust their priorities.